Daily Papers

Current state-of-the-art object detection and segmentation methods work well under the closed-world assumption. This closed-world setting assumes that the list of object categories is available during training and deployment. However, many real-world applications require detecting or segmenting novel objects, i.e., object categories never seen during training. In this paper, we present, UVO (Unidentified Video Objects), a new benchmark for open-world class-agnostic object segmentation in videos. Besides shifting the problem focus to the open-world setup, UVO is significantly larger, providing approximately 8 times more videos compared with DAVIS, and 7 times more mask (instance) annotations per video compared with YouTube-VOS and YouTube-VIS. UVO is also more challenging as it includes many videos with crowded scenes and complex background motions. We demonstrated that UVO can be used for other applications, such as object tracking and super-voxel segmentation, besides open-world object segmentation. We believe that UVo is a versatile testbed for researchers to develop novel approaches for open-world class-agnostic object segmentation, and inspires new research directions towards a more comprehensive video understanding beyond classification and detection.

Benchmarks can run without determining what their results license. We freeze a large evaluation collection and attempt to replay its historical claims. Most units stop because the evidence required for replay is not bound. Where replay is possible, different claims remain stable at different resolutions. We make this otherwise implicit inference step explicit and executable.

Pollinator insects such as honeybees and bumblebees are vital to global food production and ecosystem stability, yet their populations are declining due to increasing anthropogenic and environmental stressors. To support scalable, automated pollinator monitoring, we introduce BuzzSet, a new large-scale dataset of high-resolution pollinator images collected in real agricultural field conditions. BuzzSet contains 7856 manually verified and labeled images, with over 8000 annotated instances across three classes: honeybees, bumblebees, and unidentified insects. Initial annotations were generated using a YOLOv12 model trained on external data and refined via human verification using open-source labeling tools. All images were preprocessed into 256~times~256 tiles to improve the detection of small insects. We provide strong baselines using the RF-DETR transformer-based object detector. The model achieves high F1-scores of 0.94 and 0.92 for honeybee and bumblebee classes, respectively, with confusion matrix results showing minimal misclassification between these categories. The unidentified class remains more challenging due to label ambiguity and lower sample frequency, yet still contributes useful insights for robustness evaluation. Overall detection quality is strong, with a best mAP@0.50 of 0.559. BuzzSet offers a valuable benchmark for small object detection, class separation under label noise, and ecological computer vision.

We introduce WildTeaming, an automatic LLM safety red-teaming framework that mines in-the-wild user-chatbot interactions to discover 5.7K unique clusters of novel jailbreak tactics, and then composes multiple tactics for systematic exploration of novel jailbreaks. Compared to prior work that performed red-teaming via recruited human workers, gradient-based optimization, or iterative revision with LLMs, our work investigates jailbreaks from chatbot users who were not specifically instructed to break the system. WildTeaming reveals previously unidentified vulnerabilities of frontier LLMs, resulting in up to 4.6x more diverse and successful adversarial attacks compared to state-of-the-art jailbreak methods. While many datasets exist for jailbreak evaluation, very few open-source datasets exist for jailbreak training, as safety training data has been closed even when model weights are open. With WildTeaming we create WildJailbreak, a large-scale open-source synthetic safety dataset with 262K vanilla (direct request) and adversarial (complex jailbreak) prompt-response pairs. To mitigate exaggerated safety behaviors, WildJailbreak provides two contrastive types of queries: 1) harmful queries (vanilla & adversarial) and 2) benign queries that resemble harmful queries in form but contain no harm. As WildJailbreak considerably upgrades the quality and scale of existing safety resources, it uniquely enables us to examine the scaling effects of data and the interplay of data properties and model capabilities during safety training. Through extensive experiments, we identify the training properties that enable an ideal balance of safety behaviors: appropriate safeguarding without over-refusal, effective handling of vanilla and adversarial queries, and minimal, if any, decrease in general capabilities. All components of WildJailbeak contribute to achieving balanced safety behaviors of models.

Recent developments in balancing the usefulness and safety of Large Language Models (LLMs) have raised a critical question: Are mainstream NLP tasks adequately aligned with safety consideration? Our study, focusing on safety-sensitive documents obtained through adversarial attacks, reveals significant disparities in the safety alignment of various NLP tasks. For instance, LLMs can effectively summarize malicious long documents but often refuse to translate them. This discrepancy highlights a previously unidentified vulnerability: attacks exploiting tasks with weaker safety alignment, like summarization, can potentially compromise the integraty of tasks traditionally deemed more robust, such as translation and question-answering (QA). Moreover, the concurrent use of multiple NLP tasks with lesser safety alignment increases the risk of LLMs inadvertently processing harmful content. We demonstrate these vulnerabilities in various safety-aligned LLMs, particularly Llama2 models and GPT-4, indicating an urgent need for strengthening safety alignments across a broad spectrum of NLP tasks.

When deploying large language models (LLMs), it is important to ensure that these models are not only capable, but also reliable. Many benchmarks have been created to track LLMs' growing capabilities, however there has been no similar focus on measuring their reliability. To understand the potential ramifications of this gap, we investigate how well current benchmarks quantify model reliability. We find that pervasive label errors can compromise these evaluations, obscuring lingering model failures and hiding unreliable behavior. Motivated by this gap in the evaluation of reliability, we then propose the concept of so-called platinum benchmarks, i.e., benchmarks carefully curated to minimize label errors and ambiguity. As a first attempt at constructing such benchmarks, we revise examples from fifteen existing popular benchmarks. We evaluate a wide range of models on these platinum benchmarks and find that, indeed, frontier LLMs still exhibit failures on simple tasks such as elementary-level math word problems. Analyzing these failures further reveals previously unidentified patterns of problems on which frontier models consistently struggle. We provide code at https://github.com/MadryLab/platinum-benchmarks

The peculiar long gamma-ray burst (GRB) event, GRB 211211A, is known for it is association with a kilonova feature. Whereas most long GRBs are thought to originate in the core collapse of massive stars, the presence of kilonova suggests GRB 211211A was instead produced by a merger of a compact object binary. Building on the interpretation put forward by Yang2022Natur.612..232Y--who argue that GRB 211211A was powered by a massive white-dwarf + neutron-star (WD-NS) merger--we adopt this WD-NS scenario as our observationally supported starting point. If the burst truly originates from that channel, its rarity must mirror the formation and merger rate of WD-NS binaries--a rate still largely unexplored in conventional massive-binary population studies. In this letter, we present a qualitative analysis based on binary evolution physics in order to understand the fraction of GRB 211211A in short GRBs (NS-WD/NS-NS fraction). Since the progenitors of massive WD-NS binaries occupy the initial mass function-preferred regime, where the zero-age main-sequence mass range of the assumed WD mass range (1.2-1.4,M_odot) is comparable to that of NSs, the NS-WD/NS-NS fraction emerging from our standard evolutionary path is expected to be sim14--37\%, far higher than the observed fraction (sim5\%). This discrepancy might imply a large, still-unidentified population of GRB 211211A-like events or an unusual origin of the NS-such as being hypernova-born or accretion-induced-collapse-born. Placing these results in a broader compact-binary context, implications for black-hole systems are also discussed.

This paper describes the approach we have taken in the challenge. We still adopted the two-stage scheme same as the last champion, that is, detection first and segmentation followed. We trained more powerful detector and segmentor separately. Besides, we also perform pseudo-label training on the test set, based on student-teacher framework and end-to-end transformer based object detection. The method ranks first on the 2nd Unidentified Video Objects (UVO) challenge, achieving AR@100 of 46.8, 64.7 and 32.2 in the limited data frame track, unlimited data frame track and video track respectively.

Machine learning models for medical image analysis often suffer from poor performance on important subsets of a population that are not identified during training or testing. For example, overall performance of a cancer detection model may be high, but the model still consistently misses a rare but aggressive cancer subtype. We refer to this problem as hidden stratification, and observe that it results from incompletely describing the meaningful variation in a dataset. While hidden stratification can substantially reduce the clinical efficacy of machine learning models, its effects remain difficult to measure. In this work, we assess the utility of several possible techniques for measuring and describing hidden stratification effects, and characterize these effects on multiple medical imaging datasets. We find evidence that hidden stratification can occur in unidentified imaging subsets with low prevalence, low label quality, subtle distinguishing features, or spurious correlates, and that it can result in relative performance differences of over 20% on clinically important subsets. Finally, we explore the clinical implications of our findings, and suggest that evaluation of hidden stratification should be a critical component of any machine learning deployment in medical imaging.

Recent breakthroughs in artificial intelligence offer tremendous promise for the development of self-driving applications. Deep Neural Networks, in particular, are being utilized to support the operation of semi-autonomous cars through object identification and semantic segmentation. To assess the inadequacy of the current dataset in the context of autonomous and semi-autonomous cars, we created a new dataset named ANNA. This study discusses a custom-built dataset that includes some unidentified vehicles in the perspective of Bangladesh, which are not included in the existing dataset. A dataset validity check was performed by evaluating models using the Intersection Over Union (IOU) metric. The results demonstrated that the model trained on our custom dataset was more precise and efficient than the models trained on the KITTI or COCO dataset concerning Bangladeshi traffic. The research presented in this paper also emphasizes the importance of developing accurate and efficient object detection algorithms for the advancement of autonomous vehicles.

Blind face restoration aims to recover high-quality facial images from various unidentified sources of degradation, posing significant challenges due to the minimal information retrievable from the degraded images. Prior knowledge-based methods, leveraging geometric priors and facial features, have led to advancements in face restoration but often fall short of capturing fine details. To address this, we introduce a visual style prompt learning framework that utilizes diffusion probabilistic models to explicitly generate visual prompts within the latent space of pre-trained generative models. These prompts are designed to guide the restoration process. To fully utilize the visual prompts and enhance the extraction of informative and rich patterns, we introduce a style-modulated aggregation transformation layer. Extensive experiments and applications demonstrate the superiority of our method in achieving high-quality blind face restoration. The source code is available at https://github.com/LonglongaaaGo/VSPBFR{https://github.com/LonglongaaaGo/VSPBFR}.

The Segment Anything Model (SAM) has established itself as a powerful zero-shot image segmentation model, employing interactive prompts such as points to generate masks. This paper presents SAM-PT, a method extending SAM's capability to tracking and segmenting anything in dynamic videos. SAM-PT leverages robust and sparse point selection and propagation techniques for mask generation, demonstrating that a SAM-based segmentation tracker can yield strong zero-shot performance across popular video object segmentation benchmarks, including DAVIS, YouTube-VOS, and MOSE. Compared to traditional object-centric mask propagation strategies, we uniquely use point propagation to exploit local structure information that is agnostic to object semantics. We highlight the merits of point-based tracking through direct evaluation on the zero-shot open-world Unidentified Video Objects (UVO) benchmark. To further enhance our approach, we utilize K-Medoids clustering for point initialization and track both positive and negative points to clearly distinguish the target object. We also employ multiple mask decoding passes for mask refinement and devise a point re-initialization strategy to improve tracking accuracy. Our code integrates different point trackers and video segmentation benchmarks and will be released at https://github.com/SysCV/sam-pt.

Hypernetworks, neural networks that predict the parameters of another neural network, are powerful models that have been successfully used in diverse applications from image generation to multi-task learning. Unfortunately, existing hypernetworks are often challenging to train. Training typically converges far more slowly than for non-hypernetwork models, and the rate of convergence can be very sensitive to hyperparameter choices. In this work, we identify a fundamental and previously unidentified problem that contributes to the challenge of training hypernetworks: a magnitude proportionality between the inputs and outputs of the hypernetwork. We demonstrate both analytically and empirically that this can lead to unstable optimization, thereby slowing down convergence, and sometimes even preventing any learning. We present a simple solution to this problem using a revised hypernetwork formulation that we call Magnitude Invariant Parametrizations (MIP). We demonstrate the proposed solution on several hypernetwork tasks, where it consistently stabilizes training and achieves faster convergence. Furthermore, we perform a comprehensive ablation study including choices of activation function, normalization strategies, input dimensionality, and hypernetwork architecture; and find that MIP improves training in all scenarios. We provide easy-to-use code that can turn existing networks into MIP-based hypernetworks.

Real-world image super-resolution (RWSR) is a long-standing problem as low-quality (LQ) images often have complex and unidentified degradations. Existing methods such as Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) or continuous diffusion models present their own issues including GANs being difficult to train while continuous diffusion models requiring numerous inference steps. In this paper, we propose an Iterative Token Evaluation and Refinement (ITER) framework for RWSR, which utilizes a discrete diffusion model operating in the discrete token representation space, i.e., indexes of features extracted from a VQGAN codebook pre-trained with high-quality (HQ) images. We show that ITER is easier to train than GANs and more efficient than continuous diffusion models. Specifically, we divide RWSR into two sub-tasks, i.e., distortion removal and texture generation. Distortion removal involves simple HQ token prediction with LQ images, while texture generation uses a discrete diffusion model to iteratively refine the distortion removal output with a token refinement network. In particular, we propose to include a token evaluation network in the discrete diffusion process. It learns to evaluate which tokens are good restorations and helps to improve the iterative refinement results. Moreover, the evaluation network can first check status of the distortion removal output and then adaptively select total refinement steps needed, thereby maintaining a good balance between distortion removal and texture generation. Extensive experimental results show that ITER is easy to train and performs well within just 8 iterative steps. Our codes will be available publicly.

Good datasets are essential for developing and benchmarking any machine learning system. Their importance is even more extreme for safety critical applications such as deepfake detection - the focus of this paper. Here we reveal that two of the most widely used audio-video deepfake datasets suffer from a previously unidentified spurious feature: the leading silence. Fake videos start with a very brief moment of silence and based on this feature alone, we can separate the real and fake samples almost perfectly. As such, previous audio-only and audio-video models exploit the presence of silence in the fake videos and consequently perform worse when the leading silence is removed. To circumvent latching on such unwanted artifact and possibly other unrevealed ones we propose a shift from supervised to unsupervised learning by training models exclusively on real data. We show that by aligning self-supervised audio-video representations we remove the risk of relying on dataset-specific biases and improve robustness in deepfake detection.

Modern astronomical surveys are producing datasets of unprecedented size and richness, increasing the potential for high-impact scientific discovery. This possibility, coupled with the challenge of exploring a large number of sources, has led to the development of novel machine-learning-based anomaly detection approaches, such as Astronomaly. For the first time, we test the scalability of Astronomaly by applying it to almost 4 million images of galaxies from the Dark Energy Camera Legacy Survey. We use a trained deep learning algorithm to learn useful representations of the images and pass these to the anomaly detection algorithm isolation forest, coupled with Astronomaly's active learning method, to discover interesting sources. We find that data selection criteria have a significant impact on the trade-off between finding rare sources such as strong lenses and introducing artefacts into the dataset. We demonstrate that active learning is required to identify the most interesting sources and reduce artefacts, while anomaly detection methods alone are insufficient. Using Astronomaly, we find 1635 anomalies among the top 2000 sources in the dataset after applying active learning, including eight strong gravitational lens candidates, 1609 galaxy merger candidates, and 18 previously unidentified sources exhibiting highly unusual morphology. Our results show that by leveraging the human-machine interface, Astronomaly is able to rapidly identify sources of scientific interest even in large datasets.

We present a systematic reassessment of 5,062 high-Galactic latitude gamma-ray sources from the Fermi-LAT 4FGL-DR4 catalog using Firmamento, a web-based platform for multi-frequency source discovery and analysis. Our goal is to provide an independent evaluation of LAT gamma-ray source associations through alternative spectral and spatial methods that combine recent and legacy survey data, supplemented by human supervision of spectral energy distributions (SEDs), source morphology, flux variability, and template-based comparisons. Firmamento confirms the 4FGL-DR4 and 4LAC-DR3 counterparts or unassociated sources in 4,493 cases (88.8%), demonstrating the robustness of both approaches. Beyond this general agreement, we identify 421 new blazar counterparts among previously unassociated sources, thereby reducing the fraction of unidentified extragalactic Fermi-LAT sources from 25% to 17%. In addition, in 64 cases we find alternative blazar associations, while in 49 instances we do not confirm the 4FGL-DR4 association. For all confirmed blazar counterparts we provide homogeneous estimates of synchrotron peak frequency and peak flux using machine-learning and template-based methods; these agree with 4LAC-DR3 values in most cases, though significant discrepancies appear for a few dozen sources, often due to improved X-ray coverage. The primary outcome of this work is the 1st Firmamento LAT AGN table (1FLAT), made publicly available through the Firmamento platform (https://firmamento.nyuad.nyu.edu), where all related multi-wavelength data and images are available. The project involved extensive manual validation and benefited from the active participation of graduate and undergraduate students, highlighting the platform's value for both research and education.

Many applications involve estimating the mean of multiple binomial outcomes as a common problem -- assessing intergenerational mobility of census tracts, estimating prevalence of infectious diseases across countries, and measuring click-through rates for different demographic groups. The most standard approach is to report the plain average of each outcome. Despite simplicity, the estimates are noisy when the sample sizes or mean parameters are small. In contrast, the Empirical Bayes (EB) methods are able to boost the average accuracy by borrowing information across tasks. Nevertheless, the EB methods require a Bayesian model where the parameters are sampled from a prior distribution which, unlike the commonly-studied Gaussian case, is unidentified due to discreteness of binomial measurements. Even if the prior distribution is known, the computation is difficult when the sample sizes are heterogeneous as there is no simple joint conjugate prior for the sample size and mean parameter. In this paper, we consider the compound decision framework which treats the sample size and mean parameters as fixed quantities. We develop an approximate Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator (SURE) for the average mean squared error given any class of estimators. For a class of machine learning-assisted linear shrinkage estimators, we establish asymptotic optimality, regret bounds, and valid inference. Unlike existing work, we work with the binomials directly without resorting to Gaussian approximations. This allows us to work with small sample sizes and/or mean parameters in both one-sample and two-sample settings. We demonstrate our approach using three datasets on firm discrimination, education outcomes, and innovation rates.

We present an ultra-fast and flexible search algorithm that enables search over trillion-scale natural language corpora in under 0.3 seconds while handling semantic variations (substitution, insertion, and deletion). Our approach employs string matching based on suffix arrays that scales well with corpus size. To mitigate the combinatorial explosion induced by the semantic relaxation of queries, our method is built on two key algorithmic ideas: fast exact lookup enabled by a disk-aware design, and dynamic corpus-aware pruning. We theoretically show that the proposed method suppresses exponential growth in the search space with respect to query length by leveraging statistical properties of natural language. In experiments on FineWeb-Edu (Lozhkov et al., 2024) (1.4T tokens), we show that our method achieves significantly lower search latency than existing methods: infini-gram (Liu et al., 2024), infini-gram mini (Xu et al., 2025), and SoftMatcha (Deguchi et al., 2025). As a practical application, we demonstrate that our method identifies benchmark contamination in training corpora, unidentified by existing approaches. We also provide an online demo of fast, soft search across corpora in seven languages.

A common assumption holds that enough observational and interventional data, given to a strong enough predictor, suffices. We report a failure mode that contradicts it. Across hundreds of structural causal models, on identified quantities a strong predictor and a Bayesian baseline both succeed, but on unidentified quantities (the couplings between counterfactual worlds) the predictor collapses to a point, on 28% of models to one no valid model can produce, while the truth is an admissible interval more data never narrows. The gap is structural: prediction cannot represent uncertainty over counterfactual couplings. We cast a world model as a single positive semidefinite coupling kernel K(T,T') over admissible worlds, whose diagonal is the ordinary posterior (what a predictor recovers) and whose off-diagonal is the cross-world coupling it cannot, which every counterfactual reads. The paper is the theory of that off-diagonal. It is real: two states with identical posteriors differ on a cross-world query, and the off-diagonal is the coupling that fixes counterfactuals. It can be bounded: positive semidefiniteness is partial-identifying information the marginals lack, and enforcing it bounds counterfactuals in polynomial time where the exact response-type program is intractable. Logical structure sharpens it: ontology axioms tighten the bound by up to a third, propagating to couplings they never touch. It can be acquired: targeted scars, constraints learned from encountered infeasibilities, close the gap several times faster than untargeted ones. Its full reconstruction is approximate counting of the admissible worlds, tractable below the Sly-Sun threshold and inapproximable above; we do not claim to beat the worst case.

Linking people's appearance and actions to character identities is essential for understanding video narratives. We present a framework for identity-aware video captioning and person-centric question answering that combines automatic character identification, explicit spatial grounding, and task-specific adaptation. Starting from LSMDC v2 movie clips, our pipeline matches detected faces to actor reference images, tracks characters across frames, and builds inputs with identity-linked bounding boxes. A strong vision-language model generates identity-aware captions and questions, which are manually verified and filtered to create a benchmark of 750 captioned clips and 3,000 person-centric questions. We study five grounding strategies combining textual coordinates with visual face or estimated person boxes across Video-MLLM families at roughly 2B, 4B, and 8B parameters and larger frontier models. Combining visual face boxes with textual coordinates yields the most consistent performance across scales and significantly improves overall performance over coordinates alone. Smaller models tend to over-assign known identities when the queried person is not grounded, while larger models better recognize such UNIDENTIFIED cases. We introduce BAC by LoRA fine-tuning Qwen models at 2B, 4B, and 8B scales on about 32K identity-aware captioned clips. Across all scales, BAC outperforms every other evaluated model family of comparable size. BAC-8B reaches 93.20\% overall QA accuracy, ranking behind only GPT-5.6 Sol among the frontier models evaluated in our study. Overall, explicitly communicating who is where, together with lightweight task-specific adaptation, substantially improves identity-aware video understanding without changing the underlying architecture. We release the benchmark, training data, code, and BAC checkpoints at https://github.com/momentslab/beyond-anonymous-captions.

We train an object detector built from convolutional neural networks to count interference fringes in elliptical antinode regions in frames of high-speed video recordings of transient oscillations in Caribbean steelpan drums illuminated by electronic speckle pattern interferometry (ESPI). The annotations provided by our model aim to contribute to the understanding of time-dependent behavior in such drums by tracking the development of sympathetic vibration modes. The system is trained on a dataset of crowdsourced human-annotated images obtained from the Zooniverse Steelpan Vibrations Project. Due to the small number of human-annotated images and the ambiguity of the annotation task, we also evaluate the model on a large corpus of synthetic images whose properties have been matched to the real images by style transfer using a Generative Adversarial Network. Applying the model to thousands of unlabeled video frames, we measure oscillations consistent with audio recordings of these drum strikes. One unanticipated result is that sympathetic oscillations of higher-octave notes significantly precede the rise in sound intensity of the corresponding second harmonic tones; the mechanism responsible for this remains unidentified. This paper primarily concerns the development of the predictive model; further exploration of the steelpan images and deeper physical insights await its further application.

We systematically evaluate Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) methods under the paradigm of Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR). RLVR incentivizes language models to enhance their reasoning capabilities through verifiable feedback; however, while methods like LoRA are commonly used, the optimal PEFT architecture for RLVR remains unidentified. In this work, we conduct the first comprehensive evaluation of over 12 PEFT methodologies across the DeepSeek-R1-Distill families on mathematical reasoning benchmarks. Our empirical results challenge the default adoption of standard LoRA with three main findings. First, we demonstrate that structural variants, such as DoRA, AdaLoRA, and MiSS, consistently outperform LoRA. Second, we uncover a spectral collapse phenomenon in SVD-informed initialization strategies (e.g., PiSSA, MiLoRA), attributing their failure to a fundamental misalignment between principal-component updates and RL optimization. Furthermore, our ablations reveal that extreme parameter reduction (e.g., VeRA, Rank-1) severely bottlenecks reasoning capacity. We further conduct ablation studies and scaling experiments to validate our findings. This work provides a definitive guide for advocating for more exploration for parameter-efficient RL methods.

When forecasting hourly returns for 1,000 US equities, we observe an unexpected phenomenon: predictions become nearly flat and show poor stock ranking, as measured by cross-sectional correlation. We call this forecast collapse. Surprisingly, the phenomenon largely disappears when forecasting trading volume under the same setting. We investigate forecast collapse across time-series foundation models (TSFMs), twelve deep-learning forecasting models, and 97 public benchmark configurations, and find that it is closely tied to target predictability. We identify two distinct reasons behind it: low predictability limits the amplitude of calibrated point forecasts, while per-series objectives leave cross-series structure unidentified. These findings reveal a calibration-ranking tradeoff: optimizing squared error leads to flat predictions, whereas directly optimizing cross-sectional correlation improves ranking but can inflate forecast amplitude by more than an order of magnitude. To address this tradeoff, we introduce CalibRank, a simple objective that balances calibration and ranking. On Finance1K, CalibRank nearly triples cross-sectional correlation while keeping amplitude close to the target, and improves correlation on all tested models. Our results reveal a blind spot in conventional time-series evaluation: per-series metrics can hide failures in cross-series structure needed by downstream decisions.

Predicting the answer to interventional ``what if'' questions --- the outcome of an action never taken --- requires a mechanistic, causal model, not a curve fit; and learning such a model requires experiments, because passive data leaves its mechanisms unidentified. Experiments are expensive, so the central problem is data efficiency. We present the Model Discovery Agent (MDA), which couples a large language model (LLM), used as a proposer of candidate structures, with standard Bayesian machinery --- sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) for parameter and structure posteriors, simulation-based inference (SBI) for intractable likelihoods, and value-of-information (VoI) for experiment design --- to discover latent mechanistic world models from few interventions. MDA operates in the M-open setting: when the truth lies outside the current hypothesis class, a predictive check flags the inadequacy and the proposer expands the hypothesis space with a new model whose parameters are then identified by designed experiments. We show that discovery and design reinforce: the design step identifies the mechanism the discovery step proposes, and the identified mechanism improves predictions, enabling further discoveries from the remaining unexplained residuals. On three different benchmarks --- covering physics (\DPbench, wiemann2026discoverphysics), chemistry (\CHEMbench, kabra2026autoscilab) and biology (\HHbench, a new partially observed single-neuron electrophysiology benchmark we create) --- we show that MDA sets a new SOTA in terms of data-efficient model learning and reliable interventional prediction ability.